Bitcoin slips below US$75K as Fed stance and ETF flows reset

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Introduction

Digital assets moved onto softer footing this week as firmer policy signals and changing capital flows weighed on sentiment. The US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, maintaining a cautious stance as inflation pressures persist, particularly alongside rising energy prices. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin fell below US$75,000 (A$105,000), while ETF demand paused after a sustained run of inflows. Even so, conditions remain more balanced than weak. Large holders continue to accumulate, and network activity across major assets remains steady. The market is now navigating a period where macro conditions and underlying demand are pulling in different directions.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin trades below US$75,000 (A$105,000) as macro conditions tighten
• US Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, limiting near-term easing expectations
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs see US$352.86M (A$494M) in net outflows
• BlackRock’s IBIT records first outflow after 13 consecutive days of inflows
• Strategy holdings reach 818,334 BTC, signalling continued accumulation
• Stablecoin infrastructure expands, with Visa processing US$7B (A$9.8B) annually

Bitcoin trades near US$75K as US Fed policy and energy prices weigh down markets

Bitcoin moved below US$75,000 (A$105,000) as traders responded to firmer policy expectations and rising energy costs. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, alongside continued focus on inflation, reduced the likelihood of near-term easing. Oil prices climbed above US$110 (A$154), adding pressure across risk assets.

As these macro signals strengthened, price action followed. Digital assets have become increasingly sensitive to liquidity conditions, and this week reflected that link. With uncertainty rising, short-term positioning turned more cautious and momentum faded. At this stage, the US$75,000 (A$105,000) level has become central to near-term direction. It has acted as a pivot in recent sessions, with price reacting quickly on either side. Holding this area would suggest demand is still active. A sustained move lower would indicate that recent gains may struggle to hold without renewed buying interest.

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US spot Bitcoin ETFs see US$352.86M (A$494M) in net outflows

Alongside softer price action, institutional flows also turned. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of US$352.86 million (A$494 million) across April 27 to 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak that brought in over US$2 billion (A$2.8 billion).

BlackRock’s IBIT saw its first outflow after thirteen consecutive days of inflows, signalling a change in positioning rather than a structural reversal. Moves like this often reflect shifts in liquidity and risk appetite, where capital becomes more selective as uncertainty increases.

Even with this pause, ETF participation remains a key pillar of demand. Compared to previous cycles, these flows have introduced a more consistent source of capital into the market. The focus now shifts to whether this pullback stabilises. A return to inflows would support current levels, while continued outflows may point to a more cautious near-term stance from institutional investors.

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Strategy holdings rise as Ethereum activity remains elevated

Despite the change in flows, longer-term positioning continues to build. Strategy has increased its Bitcoin holdings to 818,334 BTC. This level of accumulation signals conviction at current prices and confirms continued participation from corporate buyers.

At the same time, network data presents a steadier picture. Ethereum’s 100-day average of active addresses has reached around 587,000. Usage remains consistent even as ETH trades near US$2,288 (A$3,203). The gap between price and activity indicates that engagement across the network remains intact.

These signals point to a market where participation has not faded, even as sentiment softens. Periods like this often suggest consolidation rather than structural weakness. However, they do not always lead to immediate upside. For now, underlying demand remains in place but depends on more supportive conditions to influence price direction.

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Visa processes US$7B as stablecoin infrastructure expands

While market sentiment has cooled, development across payments and settlement infrastructure continues to progress. Visa’s stablecoin settlement network now spans nine blockchains and processes around US$7 billion (A$9.8 billion) in annualised volume, reflecting deeper integration between digital assets and traditional finance.

In parallel, Meta is expanding stablecoin-based payouts for creators on networks such as Solana and Polygon. By building on existing infrastructure, these initiatives lower barriers to adoption and extend real-world use cases.

Activity is also building across tokenised assets. The XRP Ledger has seen tokenised asset volumes reach around US$3 billion (A$4.2 billion), with tokenised US Treasuries increasing over the past month. This points to growing interest in blockchain-based financial instruments beyond payments and trading.

These developments tend to move independently of short-term price cycles. As usage expands across payments and settlement, it strengthens the foundation supporting digital assets. Over time, this layer of activity can support more stable participation and improved liquidity, even during periods where market sentiment remains cautious.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

AFR: Bitcoin carves out massive 10pc gain in April despite the war

BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas said the other key driver behind the rally was a buying spree by Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The digital asset treasury company last week overtook BlackRock, issuer of the world’s largest bitcoin ETF, to become the biggest institutional holder of bitcoin.

Strategy now holds nearly 4 per cent of global supply after hoovering up more than $US7 billion in bitcoin, which was trading at around $US75,800 on Thursday, over the last eight weeks.

“When that volume of capital is moving systematically through regulated products, price has a structural floor that can hold even against significant macro headwinds,” Lucas said.

Bloomberg: Bitcoin Touches 12-Week High as Traders Weigh Progress on Iran

“The risks are real. US-Iran peace deal odds have collapsed, a macro overhang that could reprice risk assets broadly,” said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets.

“$80,000 is where many recent buyers are approaching breakeven, which is typically where selling pressure emerges as they rotate out of their positions.”

Announcements

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, April 30th

• United States Fed Funds Interest Rate, Core PCE Price Index MoM, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Income, Personal Spending
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI, RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
• Japan Consumer Confidence
• France GDP Growth Rate, GDP Annual Growth Rate, Inflation Rate
• Spain GDP Growth Rate, GDP Annual Growth Rate
• Germany GDP Growth Rate, GDP Annual Growth Rate
• Italy GDP Growth Rate, GDP Annual Growth Rate, Inflation Rate
• Euro Area GDP Growth Rate, GDP Annual Growth Rate, Inflation Rate, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Interest Rate, ECB Press Conference
• United Kingdom Interest Rate, Deposit Facility Rate

Friday, May 1st

• United States ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, May 5th

• Australia Interest Rate
• United States ISM Services PMI, Job Openings

Wednesday, May 6th

• Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Fed holds rates steady as divided vote adds to policy uncertainty
• Europe: Rising inflation expectations complicate ECB policy path
• China: Focus on energy security and technology resilience intensifies
• Japan: BOJ holds rates as internal split points to possible June move
• Australia: Microsoft’s A$25B AI investment signals growing tech momentum

In the United States, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, but market expectations shifted following the decision. Traders are now pricing in no rate cuts for 2026, with around a 25% probability of a rate hike over the next year. This repricing reflects persistent inflation concerns, particularly as oil prices move above US$100 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. For digital assets, a higher-for-longer rate environment can weigh on liquidity conditions, keeping risk appetite sensitive to macro developments.

Across Europe, inflation expectations have moved higher, creating a more complex environment for the European Central Bank. Consumers are anticipating stronger price pressures even as growth indicators soften. This dynamic places policymakers in a difficult position, as efforts to stabilise inflation risk weighing further on economic activity.

In China, authorities are reinforcing priorities around energy security and technological capability as geopolitical risks broaden. Recent policy signals suggest a continued focus on insulating the domestic economy from external shocks. While support measures remain in place, uncertainty around global demand continues to influence the outlook.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintained its current rate settings, though divisions among policymakers point to a potential shift as early as June. Some officials are increasingly alert to inflation persistence and rising cost pressures. This divergence signals that Japan’s long-standing accommodative stance may be approaching a turning point.

In Australia, Microsoft has announced a A$25 billion investment to expand artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, marking one of the largest technology commitments in the country. The move strengthens Australia’s position in the global AI build-out and reflects rising demand for digital infrastructure. It also highlights how sustained capital investment in technology is contributing to longer-term growth expectations.

Policy signals and capital allocation trends are setting the tone for markets. Central banks remain measured, while investment continues to concentrate in strategic sectors such as energy and technology. Positioning is adjusting as participants respond to shifting expectations and ongoing uncertainty.

Final thoughts 

Focus now turns to whether Bitcoin can hold around US$75,000 (A$105,000) as macro conditions remain firm. The recent pullback comes from tighter financial settings rather than a loss of participation. ETF flows will be a key signal, particularly if outflows begin to stabilise. At the same time, continued accumulation and steady network activity suggest that underlying demand remains in place. Markets are adjusting to a more complex environment, where policy, energy prices, and capital flows are closely linked. Price behaviour at current levels will offer the clearest indication of whether support can hold or if further consolidation is likely.

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Some online offers may not be what they appear. In certain cases, individuals pose as buyers or sellers to encourage payments or the transfer of goods. They may create websites or profiles that closely resemble legitimate businesses, using familiar branding, reviews, or domain formats such as “.com.au”.

These situations can arise on marketplace platforms, social media, or through email. Some involve invoices or last-minute changes to payment details. Once a payment is sent, it can be difficult to recover.

What to watch out for

• Prices that seem unusually low or product claims that appear exaggerated.
• Missing Australian Business Number (ABN), privacy policy, or terms and conditions on a website.
• Buyers offering to overpay or proceed without viewing the item.
• Requests for payment via gift cards, money orders, or multiple accounts.
• Invoices for goods or services you did not request.

How to stay safe

• Verify the business using an ABN or official registration.
• Be cautious with sellers offering steep discounts on social media platforms.
• Use secure payment methods such as credit cards or PayPal.
• Confirm invoice and payment details directly with the supplier using official contact details.
• Check that the recipient’s name matches the payee when using PayID or bank transfers.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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