Bitcoin snaps five-month losing streak

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Introduction

It was a week that closed one difficult chapter and opened another with a little more optimism. Bitcoin ended Q1 down ~24% yet managed to snap a five-month losing streak with a modest gain in March.

As Q2 got underway, a combination of geopolitical relief, renewed institutional flows, and a landmark regulatory development right here in Australia gave markets a more constructive tone.

The A$101,000 (US$70,000) level remains the line to watch as traders assess whether the recovery has genuine legs.

Check prices on the BTC Markets exchange.

State of crypto

• Bitcoin closed Q1 down ~24% at A$98,686, although it managed to snap a five-month losing streak with a 4.53% gain in March on the BTC Markets exchange.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$1.32 billion in net inflows in March, ending four consecutive months of outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT leading on the final day of the quarter.
• Australia passed the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 on 1 April, the country's first comprehensive crypto licensing law, requiring exchanges and custody providers to hold an AFSL.
• Geopolitical relief lifted risk assets as President Trump signalled the US-Iran conflict could wind down within weeks.
• Institutional momentum continued to build, with Franklin Templeton launching a dedicated crypto division and Citadel-backed EDX Markets filing for a US national trust charter.
• April has historically been one of Bitcoin's stronger months, closing in positive territory 66.7% of the time since 2014, giving markets a seasonal tailwind heading into Q2.

Bitcoin breaks a five-month losing streak

Bitcoin closed Q1 down approximately 24% at A$98,686 on the BTC Markets exchange, with market sentiment deep in extreme fear for much of the period. Geopolitical tension from the US-Iran conflict, persistent selling pressure from short-term holders with an average cost basis near US$85,800, and a broader risk-off environment all weighed on price throughout the quarter.

March, however, told a more encouraging story. Bitcoin gained 4.53% on the BTC Markets exchange for the month, snapping a five-month losing streak and offering some relief heading into Q2. The asset opened April above A$98,000 as sentiment shifted on news that President Trump signalled the US-Iran conflict could wind down within weeks, prompting a risk-on move across equities and crypto alike.

While the broader trend remains cautious, the change in tone at the start of a historically constructive month is worth noting. April has closed in positive territory 66.7% of the time since 2018, eight out of twelve years, and with macro conditions showing early signs of improvement and ETF flows turning positive for the first time since October, there is a reasonable case that Q2 shapes up differently from Q1. The key level to watch remains A$101,000 (US$70,000).

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ETF inflows return after four-month drought

One of the more significant developments of the past week was confirmation that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of US$1.32 billion across March, ending four consecutive months of outflows. BlackRock's IBIT led the charge, posting US$98.4 million in net inflows on the final day of the quarter alone. Cumulative ETF inflows now stand at US$56 billion, with assets under management at US$87.5 billion across 1.31 million BTC held.

The turnaround in ETF flows matters beyond the headline number. It signals that institutional allocators, who had been reducing exposure through the Q1 drawdown, are finding value at current levels. The average investor cost basis across ETF holders sits near US$84,000 (A$121,200), well above the current price, which means many are still underwater but the return of positive monthly flows suggests that fresh capital is beginning to enter rather than exit.

Morgan Stanley's filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF at a 0.14% fee and BlackRock's filing for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF using covered calls both point to a product pipeline that is expanding, not contracting. For Australian investors watching the institutional adoption story, the direction of ETF flows heading into Q2 will be one of the clearest signals of where conviction sits among the world's largest capital allocators.

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Australia passes landmark digital asset legislation

The biggest local story of the week, and arguably the most significant development for Australian crypto investors in years, was the passage of the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025. The bill cleared the Senate on 1 April after passing the House of Representatives in February, making Australia the latest major economy to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

The legislation brings crypto exchanges and custody providers under the Australian Financial Services Licence regime, the same framework that governs brokers and fund managers. Two new regulated categories have been created: digital asset platforms and tokenised custody platforms. Licensed firms will be required to keep client funds separate from corporate assets, maintain governance and risk controls, and provide clear disclosure about how customer assets are held and managed.

The bill now awaits Royal Assent, with commencement set for 12 months following assent and a further transition window for industry compliance. For businesses and investors alike, the significance is hard to overstate. Australia has long been regarded as crypto-friendly in attitude but lagging in regulatory clarity. That gap has now closed. Policymakers have framed the framework as a foundation for capturing what they estimate to be a AU$24 billion annual digital finance opportunity. For BTC Markets and the broader local industry, the message is clear: Australia is open, regulated, and ready to compete.

Learn ‘What it Actually Means for Australian Investors’ in an article from our CEO, Lucas Dobbins.

TradFi deepens its crypto commitment

The past week produced a string of institutional developments that underscore how decisively traditional finance has shifted its position on digital assets. Franklin Templeton, the US$1.7 trillion asset manager, completed its acquisition of a CoinFund spinoff to launch Franklin Crypto, a dedicated crypto investment division targeting active digital asset strategies beyond its existing ETF products. Christopher Perkins will lead the new unit, with Seth Ginns as chief investment officer. The deal is expected to close in Q2 2026 and marks one of the most direct moves yet by a major asset manager into crypto-native investment management.

Separately, EDX Markets, the institutional crypto exchange backed by Citadel Securities, filed for a US national trust bank charter. The filing would enable the platform to expand into regulated custody and asset services, further integrating crypto infrastructure into the mainstream financial system.

Meanwhile, Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continued its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition programme, purchasing 44,377 BTC in March alone and representing 94% of all public company Bitcoin purchases for the month. The company now holds 762,099 BTC.

New Hampshire also made history this week, issuing the first Bitcoin-backed municipal bond, a US$100 million instrument with no taxpayer risk and 160% over-collateralisation.

Taken together, these developments reflect an institutional landscape that is not retreating from crypto despite the Q1 price drawdown, it is deepening its position.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

ABC News: BTC Markets says new digital assets law lays foundations for institutional confidence

BTC Markets CEO Lucas Dobbins shared his thoughts with ABC News regarding the passage of the digital asset bill "This has been a long time coming…years of submissions, working groups, and sustained engagement with government and regulators have brought us here. For the first time, digital asset platforms operate within a dedicated legislative framework with clear expectations around licensing, consumer protection, and platform standards. That clarity matters, for businesses like BTC Markets, and for the institutional and retail investors who have been watching Australia's regulatory posture closely.”

Livewire Markets: Tokenisation: the future of finance is now, and the rules of investing have changed forever

In his latest article on Livewire Markets, BTC Markets’ Head of Finance Charlie Sherry explains how tokenised infrastructure is moving from theory into real market use as decentralised platforms begin supporting price discovery when traditional exchanges are closed.

He points out the structural direction of capital flows, stating, “Capital follows the path of least resistance, and that path is increasingly on-chain.”

Bloomberg: Bitcoin Holds Modest Gains After Five-Month Losing Streak Ends

Bitcoin, which is only slightly above the roughly $66,500 level it was at a month ago, would need to sustain prices above the $70,000 to $72,000 range to build conviction among investors, said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets.

“Markets have been conditioned by 12 months of policy reversals,” she said. “Bitcoin’s price action tells the story: It stayed compressed in a tight range even as equity markets moved sharply on the headline” from Trump.

Investor Daily: The biggest people moves of Q1

With Q1 of the 2026 calendar year coming to a close, Investor Daily takes a look back at the biggest hires and exits in the financial services space.

February began with BTC Markets’ announcement of a new CEO to succeed Caroline Bowler, who had led the crypto exchange since 2020. The firm named Lucas Dobbins as her replacement, while Paul Stonham joined as CCO.

The Block: 'More room to fall': Bitcoin trades near $67,000 as US-Iran deadlock persists

"What we saw this week was a classic risk-off unwind," said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets. "Bitcoin touched $72k mid-week on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, then gave it all back as those hopes faded and oil supply concerns resurfaced."

Announcements

After Acacia: Australia's tokenisation moment has arrived

The RBA’s Project Acacia findings landed this week with a clear message: tokenisation in Australia is no longer a question of if, it is a question of how. That is a meaningful shift, and one that BTC Markets has been building for some time.

Read the full update of BTC Markets’ CEO Lucas Dobbins.

DOGE is now live on BTC Markets!

Deposits and withdrawals are open, and the order book is active for real-time trading. Dogecoin is an open-source, peer-to-peer digital currency born from internet culture, featuring the Shiba Inu “Doge” meme as its emblem.

Start trading the DOGE/AUD pair on our platform.

Caroline Bowler to speak at SIAA 2026

We’re pleased to share that Caroline Bowler, Non-Executive Director at BTC Markets, will be speaking at the Stockbrokers and Investment Advisers Association 2026 Investment Advisers Association on 19-20 May 2026 at the Park Hyatt Melbourne.

The conference brings together industry professionals to examine how the foundations of investment are being shaped by pressures on global trade and cap

Register now

The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, April 2nd

• Australia Balance of Trade

Friday, April 3rd

• United States Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Monday, April 6th

• United States ISM Services PMI

Tuesday, April 7th

• United States Durable Goods Orders, Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Fed adopts wait-and-see stance as geopolitical risks cloud inflation outlook
• Europe: Inflation overshoots target as energy shock strengthens tightening case
• China: Factory activity rebounds, but external risks continue to weigh on outlook
• Japan: Inflation softens in Tokyo, though energy pressures remain a key risk
• Australia: RBA signals uncertainty on rate path following recent hike

This week’s macro signals were influenced by a renewed oil-driven inflation impulse, which is beginning to feed into central bank expectations. Rather than signalling a clear policy path, officials across major economies are acknowledging uncertainty, with rate decisions now increasingly tied to how geopolitical developments evolve.

In the United States, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated policymakers can “wait and see” how geopolitical developments feed into inflation. The message points to patience, with no urgency to cut rates until clearer signs of disinflation emerge.

Across Europe, inflation moved above the ECB’s target, driven by higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions. The data reinforces expectations that policy will remain restrictive, even as growth concerns persist.

In China, factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in a year, offering a near-term lift in momentum. The rebound signals domestic resilience, but the outlook remains sensitive to global demand and external risks.

In Japan, core inflation in Tokyo eased, though higher energy costs continue to pose upside risks. Policymakers remain cautious as external pressures could quickly shift the inflation trajectory.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the RBA highlighted uncertainty following its recent rate hike, with policymakers weighing inflation persistence against a shifting global backdrop. The stance points to a more data-dependent approach, with no clear signal on the next move.

The major shift is that inflation risks are being reintroduced through energy rather than demand. That dynamic complicates the path forward for central banks, as policy remains restrictive while growth signals stay uneven across regions.

Final thoughts 

Q2 opens with a more optimistic tone than Q1 closed with, but there is meaningful work ahead before the recovery thesis is confirmed. The A$101,000 (US$70,000) level on Bitcoin remains the line in the sand, a sustained daily close above it would mark the first meaningful shift in short-term market structure since October's all-time high and open the path toward the March local high of A$107,800 (US$74,600)

On the macro calendar, the March Non-Farm Payrolls report lands on Friday 3 April, carrying the potential to reprice the US Federal Reserve rate expectations and move crypto sharply in either direction. FOMC minutes follow on 8 April.

With oil prices still elevated after a 60% surge since the start of the Iran conflict, and rate cut probability having fallen from 46% to just 4% over Q1, the macro environment remains the dominant overlay for risk assets including crypto.

On the regulatory front, the US Senate Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act is expected in mid-April, a development that could have structural consequences for the broader digital asset market. Watch the data, watch the diplomacy, and watch the A$101,000 (US$70,000) level.

Ready to take advantage of the opportunities shaping the market? Log in to trade on Australia’s own digital asset exchange and stay positioned for what comes next.

Online safety: How to spot impersonation attempts

Impersonation attempts occur when someone pretends to be a bank, crypto exchange, government agency, or even someone you know. These messages may use familiar names, altered contact details, or convincing language to make the communication appear genuine.

You may receive texts, emails, or calls that look official and claim there is an urgent issue with your account or recent activity. Some may request personal information or direct you to click a link to “verify” details. These tactics aim to create pressure so that you respond before checking the source.

What to watch out for

• Messages containing links that ask for logins or personal information.
• Urgent requests that ask you to act quickly to resolve a supposed issue.
• Calls or texts claiming to be from government agencies that mention legal action or arrest.
• Business payment instructions that suddenly change bank account or BSB details.
• Contacts who say they have a new number but avoid confirming their identity.

How to stay safe

• Avoid clicking links or downloading attachments from unfamiliar sources.
• Confirm the message by reaching out to the organisation using official contact details.
• Pay attention to subtle changes in phone numbers, email addresses, or names.
• End the conversation if the tone becomes threatening or intimidating.
• Verify the identity of anyone claiming to be a friend or family member with a new number.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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