Ceasefire sends Bitcoin to A$103,000

Rachael LucasApr 9th 2026

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Introduction

It was a week of sharp reversals. Bitcoin was weighed down by geopolitical risk and cautious institutional positioning, spending the first half of the period grinding sideways beneath a heavy ceiling. Then, on the evening of 7 April, everything changed. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, oil prices collapsed more than 10%, and Bitcoin surged past A$103,000 (US$72,000) in a matter of hours. Alongside that macro shock, institutions were already moving: A$677 million (US$471 million) poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs on 6 April alone. And Morgan Stanley became the first major US bank to launch its own Bitcoin product. It was a week worth paying attention to.

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State of crypto

Bitcoin tests A$103,000 (US$72,000) after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$471 million in net inflows on 6 April, their strongest single-day figure since late February
Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, on 8 April at a 0.14% annual fee, making it the cheapest Bitcoin ETF on the market
Ethereum ETFs recorded US$120 million in inflows on 6 April, led by BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH
The Fear and Greed Index recovered from a low of 8 to 17 this week, remaining in extreme fear territory
A$97,800 (US$68,000) is the key support level to watch as markets monitor whether the conditional US-Iran ceasefire holds

Institutions buy the fear as ETFs record strongest day since mid-February

The most important signal of the week arrived before the ceasefire, not after it. On 6 April, while the Fear and Greed Index sat at 11, deep in extreme fear territory, US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed US$471 million in net inflows, the strongest single-day figure since 25 February. That gap between institutional behaviour and retail sentiment is worth sitting with for a moment.

BlackRock's IBIT led the session with US$182 million in net inflows, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at US$147 million, and ARK's ARKB posting its strongest single day since July 2025 at US$119 million. Together, the top three funds captured roughly 94% of the day's total flow, underlining the winner-takes-most dynamic that has defined the Bitcoin ETF category since launch. Ethereum ETFs also had their first meaningful positive session in weeks, drawing US$120 million, with BlackRock's ETHA taking US$61 million and Fidelity's FETH adding US$40 million.

Total Bitcoin ETF assets under management pushed back above US$90 billion on the back of these flows, recovering from recent lows. Cumulative net inflows since January 2024 stand at approximately US$56.18 billion, a figure that has held firm despite the sharp drawdown from October's all-time high. The takeaway is straightforward: while retail investors were pricing in disaster, the largest allocators in the world were buying. That kind of divergence has historically been a meaningful forward signal for price direction.

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Bitcoin surges past A$103,500 (US$72,000) on ceasefire news

The week's defining price event came late on 7 April, when President Trump confirmed a two-week ceasefire with Iran via Truth Social, just hours before his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on key infrastructure. The market reaction was immediate and forceful.

Bitcoin climbed from below A$97,800 (US$68,000) to A$104,500 (US$72,699) within hours of the announcement, its highest level over two weeks. Oil prices collapsed more than 10%, with West Texas Intermediate crude dropping toward A$136.50 (US$95) per barrel. US stock futures moved higher across all major indices. The easing of geopolitical pressure removed an overhang that had kept risk appetite compressed throughout Q1, and capital moved back into higher-beta assets fast.

The ceasefire, however, remains conditional. Iran has indicated it accepted the pause but has not declared the war over, and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens during the two-week window will determine whether this rally holds or gives back its gains.

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Morgan Stanley launches the most competitive Bitcoin ETF

Morgan Stanley's entry into the spot Bitcoin ETF market on 8 April marks a structural shift that will play out over months and years rather than days. The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, trading under the ticker MSBT on NYSE Arca, became the first spot Bitcoin ETF issued directly by a major US bank. Its 0.14% annual fee undercuts BlackRock's IBIT at 0.25% and every other competitor in the category.

On its first day of trading, MSBT drew approximately US$34 million in inflows and saw more than 1.6 million shares change hands, placing it in the top 1% of ETF launches by activity. The fund holds Bitcoin directly, with Coinbase serving as custodian and BNY Mellon handling administration. Structurally, it mirrors the existing generation of spot Bitcoin ETFs, but the distribution advantage it carries is unlike anything currently in the market.

Morgan Stanley oversees approximately US$6.2 trillion in client assets and has a network of 16,000 financial advisers, with internal guidance allowing Bitcoin allocations of up to 4% of client portfolios depending on risk tolerance. That adviser channel represents a fundamentally different source of demand from the self-directed investors who drove early ETF inflows. As more capital moves through financial planners rather than direct trading, MSBT's positioning could prove decisive. Bloomberg ETF analyst Nate Geraci put it plainly: distribution is king in the ETF space, and Morgan Stanley has that in abundance. For Australian investors watching the global institutional adoption story, this launch is a meaningful data point in that ongoing narrative.

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Ethereum ETFs draw institutional interest

Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded US$120 million in inflows on April 6, adding to a growing body of evidence that institutional appetite for regulated ETH exposure is building in earnest.

The figures place Ethereum firmly in focus alongside Bitcoin as a vehicle for mainstream capital allocation. Where early ETF interest was heavily weighted towards Bitcoin, the gap is narrowing as asset managers and institutional allocators grow more comfortable with Ethereum's fundamentals, its role in decentralised finance, its staking mechanics, and its position as the settlement layer for a large share of on-chain activity.

For context, weekly inflows of this scale reflect deliberate positioning rather than speculative trading. Institutions accessing Ethereum through ETF structures are typically operating with longer time horizons and risk frameworks that differ markedly from retail participants. That steady accumulation has a compounding effect on available supply, particularly as staking continues to lock a meaningful share of circulating ETH.

The inflow data also points to a maturing product landscape. Ethereum ETFs are no longer a novelty, they are becoming a standard tool for portfolio exposure to the digital asset space.

Watch whether inflows sustain above the US$100 million weekly threshold in the sessions ahead, as consistency at that level would mark a meaningful shift in institutional conviction around ETH.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

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In his latest article on Livewire Markets, BTC Markets’ Head of Finance Charlie Sherry explains how tokenised infrastructure is moving from theory into real market use as decentralised platforms begin supporting price discovery when traditional exchanges are closed. He points out the structural direction of capital flows, stating, “Capital follows the path of least resistance, and that path is increasingly on-chain.”

Bloomberg: Bitcoin Pares Losses After Middle East Tensions Ease

Bitcoin sentiment “remains bearish on the short-to-medium time frame,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets. The market is in wait-and-see mode, she added, with “bulls lacking sufficient conviction to sustain breakouts and bears unable to force a decisive breakdown.”

Announcements

After Acacia: Australia's tokenisation moment has arrived

The RBA’s Project Acacia findings landed this week with a clear message: tokenisation in Australia is no longer a question of if, it is a question of how. That is a meaningful shift, and one that BTC Markets has been building for some time.

Read the full update of BTC Markets’ CEO Lucas Dobbins.

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Caroline Bowler to speak at SIAA 2026

We’re pleased to share that Caroline Bowler, Non-Executive Director at BTC Markets, will be speaking at the Stockbrokers and Investment Advisers Association 2026 Investment Advisers Association on 19-20 May 2026 at the Park Hyatt Melbourne.

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The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, April 9th

United States Fed Funds Interest Rate, Core PCE Price Index MoM, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Income, Personal Spending
Japan Consumer Confidence
Germany Balance of Trade

Friday, April 10th

China Inflation Rate
Canada Unemployment Rate
United States Core Inflation Rate MoM, Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate MoM, Inflation Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Monday, April 13th

United States Existing Home Sales

Tuesday, April 14th

Australia Consumer Confidence MoM, Business Confidence
China Balance of Trade, Exports YoY, Imports YoY
United States Producer Price Inflation MoM

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

United States: FOMC minutes confirm hawkish hold as oil shock and geopolitical risk keep rate cuts firmly on ice
Europe: Eurozone inflation surges above target on energy shock, ECB rate hike debate moves from fringe to mainstream
China: Manufacturing PMI rebounds to a one-year high, though export demand and external risks remain fragile
Japan: Tokyo inflation softens, tempering Bank of Japan hike expectations as energy costs stay elevated
Australia: RBA minutes back restrictive stance after back-to-back hikes, with all eyes on Friday's US CPI for global cues

This week's macro focus has sharpened to a single event: the US March CPI print due Friday. The backdrop is one of accelerating energy-driven inflation, a geopolitical shock that shows no sign of quick resolution, and central banks that entered 2026 expecting to ease, now being forced to hold, or reconsider entirely.

In the United States, the FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 meeting, released yesterday, confirmed that policymakers flagged the Iran-related oil shock as a meaningful upside risk to inflation. The committee held rates steady at 3.50-3.75%, with the dot plot still implying one cut in 2026, though 14 of 19 participants now see one cut or fewer. Markets are pricing near-zero odds of a move at the April 28-29 meeting, with Wells Fargo among major banks to formally revise out all 2026 rate cut expectations entirely.

Across Europe, eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February as energy costs surged 4.9%, breaching the ECB's 2% target. The ECB held rates at its March meeting but is projecting headline inflation to average 2.6% for 2026. Over a third of economists now forecast at least one rate hike this year, a dramatic reversal from the near-unanimous hold consensus that prevailed just weeks ago.

In China, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI bounced to 50.4 in March from 49.0 in February, the strongest reading in a year, supported by fiscal stimulus and resilient AI-related export demand. The rebound is real, but analysts caution the picture remains one of stabilisation rather than acceleration, with new export orders still below threshold and employment in contraction.

In Japan, softer Tokyo CPI has cooled Bank of Japan rate hike expectations. Energy cost pressures remain a risk to the inflation path, but the broader read is one of caution, with policymakers monitoring second-round effects before moving.

In Australia, the RBA's March minutes confirmed the board views financial conditions as needing to stay restrictive following back-to-back 25bp hikes in February and March. The board is weighing the Iran-linked energy shock against still-firm domestic demand, with no clear signal on the next move. Friday's US CPI will set the global tone heading into next week's local employment data.

The dominant theme across all five economies is unchanged: inflation risk has been reintroduced through energy, not demand. That distinction matters, it is harder to fight with rate hikes and slower to resolve. Until Friday's CPI print provides clarity on how quickly the oil shock is feeding through to US prices, markets are in a holding pattern.

Final thoughts

With Bitcoin trading near A$100,000 (US$71,000) on the BTC Markets exchange at week's end, attention shifts to whether the ceasefire holds and whether ETF flows confirm the move. The key support level to watch is A$96,000 (US$68,000). A sustained break below that level would remove the floor that institutions have been defending throughout Q1, and analysts have flagged A$85,000 (US$60,000) as the next meaningful support beneath it.

On the upside, A$105,000 (US$74,000) is the technical level that bulls need to clear and hold to shift the longer-term picture. That level has capped price on multiple attempts over the past two months. A confirmed close above it would represent the first structural breakout since the October 2025 peak.

The SEC's CLARITY Act roundtable on 16 April is the next policy event of note, and the Senate Banking Committee's scheduled markup of the bill in the second half of April will carry significant implications for XRP and the broader altcoin ETF landscape. After a week that delivered more positive surprises than expected, the question is whether the conditions that drove them can hold.

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Online safety: How to stay safe in online relationships

Online platforms such as dating apps, social media, and gaming communities make it easy to meet new people. While many connections are genuine, some individuals build relationships with the intention of gaining access to your money or personal information.

They may offer frequent attention, encourage you to move conversations to private apps, or share stories designed to create empathy or urgency. Over time, they may ask for financial support, suggest investment opportunities, or request personal images that could be misused later.

What to watch out for

A relationship that develops unusually quickly or feels too perfect.
Frequent excuses to avoid video calls or in-person meetings.
Requests to move the conversation to private or encrypted messaging apps.
Suggestions to send cryptocurrency, open accounts, or transfer funds.
Discouraging you from speaking with friends or family about the relationship.
Profiles with minimal information, inconsistencies, or reused photos.

How to stay safe

Avoid sending money or cryptocurrency to anyone you have not met in person.
Be cautious of investment ideas or opportunities shared by online contacts.
Use reverse image search to check whether profile photos appear elsewhere.
Speak with someone you trust if something feels unusual or uncomfortable.
Never transfer money on behalf of someone else, as this could involve you in unlawful activity.
Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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