Crypto markets recover, institutions hold firm

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Introduction

It was a week that tested nerves and rewarded patience. Bitcoin hit a weekly low of A$96,434 in Sunday's trading session, under pressure from ongoing Middle East conflict and mixed ETF flows, before recovering sharply on Tuesday with a 4.6% single-day gain. It pushed to a weekly high of A$103,282 as potential ceasefire talks between the US and Iran lifted risk assets broadly.

Amid the price volatility, the bigger story was structural. Globally, institutional capital continued to accumulate through the noise. Closer to home, Australia's superannuation sector signalled it may no longer be able to ignore crypto's growing legitimacy as the RBA confirmed it is moving Project Acacia from pilot to implementation.

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State of crypto

• Bitcoin traded between A$96,434 and A$103,282 this week, recovering from geopolitical pressure.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to close out their fifth consecutive week of net inflows.
• Hostplus, one of Australia's largest super funds managing over A$105 billion, confirmed it is exploring Bitcoin and broader digital asset offerings for members.
• The RBA wrapped up its Project Acacia research this week, concluding that tokenisation of assets and money could deliver up to A$24 billion annually.
• The CLARITY Act moved closer to Senate passage, with stablecoin yield negotiations reported as 99% resolved, removing a key legislative obstacle.

ETF inflows hold firm through volatility

Bitcoin ETF flows were the most watched data point of the week, and for good reason. US spot Bitcoin ETFs are now on track to record five consecutive weeks of net inflows, the longest running streak since July 2025. Even as price remained volatile and geopolitical tensions added uncertainty.

For the week ending 20 March, total net inflows reached US$95.18 million, with the bulk concentrated in the first two sessions of the week: US$201.62 million on 16 March and US$199.37 million on 17 March. Mid-week outflows, driven by Iran-related market stress, partially offset those gains, but the overall trend held positive.

The picture strengthened further by 23 March, when US$167.2 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in a single session, ending a brief three-day outflow streak. BlackRock's IBIT contributed US$160.8 million of that day's total, reinforcing its position as the dominant vehicle for institutional Bitcoin exposure.

Cumulatively, monthly inflows are approaching US$2.5 billion, which is on track to recover the US$1.81 billion in net outflows recorded across January and February. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted Bitcoin ETFs are within reach of recovering all year-to-date losses. When the world's largest asset managers are buying through a 40% price drawdown and amid active geopolitical conflict, the signal is worth paying attention to.

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Australia's super sector eyes digital assets

The most consequential local story of the week came from the superannuation sector. Hostplus, which manages more than A$105 billion and counts nearly two million members with an average age in the mid-to-late 30s, confirmed it is actively considering offering Bitcoin and other digital assets through its Choiceplus self-directed investment option.

Chief investment officer Sam Sicilia noted the fund has revisited digital assets given how much the space has evolved since Hostplus first looked at it a decade ago. The fund is still in the design phase, with any rollout requiring regulatory approval, but Sicilia indicated digital products could be available as early as next financial year.

This follows AMP's 2024 move to invest in Bitcoin futures, making it the first major Australian fund to do so. Regulator data shows around A$3 billion is already held in crypto through self-managed super funds, reflecting genuine member demand that industry funds have so far been slow to accommodate.

The timing also coincides with Australia's Senate Economics Legislation Committee recommending passage of the Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025, which would bring crypto platforms and digital asset custody providers under existing financial services licensing obligations. Clearer rules are likely to be a prerequisite for most super funds before they can move, which makes this legislative progress significant for the industry's local trajectory.

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RBA moves tokenisation to implementation

RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones used his address at the Australian Payments Plus forum in Sydney this week to deliver the key findings from Project Acacia, the RBA's collaborative research project into the tokenisation of assets and money in Australia's wholesale financial markets.

The headline finding is a shift in thinking. The RBA no longer sees the question as whether tokenisation has a future in Australia's financial system, but how to realise it. The DFCRC estimates that potential gains from tokenisation could reach A$24 billion per year for the Australian economy, with further upside if new markets emerge.

To move from research to reality, the RBA announced several concrete next steps. It will explore a new digital financial market infrastructure sandbox with the DFCRC, providing a longer-term environment for industry to test and scale tokenised money, assets, and infrastructure. A Regulator-Industry Tokenisation Advisory Group will be convened to work through the legal, regulatory, and operational challenges surfaced during Acacia. A Deposit Token Working Group will develop interoperability solutions for bank-issued deposit tokens, and a C-suite Roundtable on the Future of Digital Finance will bring senior industry leaders together to engage on international developments.

Jones was clear that no single institution, public or private, can unlock this opportunity alone. A coordinated Team Australia effort across industry, regulators, and government is what the moment requires. For digital asset businesses operating in Australia, the direction of travel from the RBA is unambiguous: the infrastructure of Australian finance is being rebuilt for the digital age, and the policy community is actively building the runway for it.

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Bitcoin price action: geopolitics sets the tone

Bitcoin's price action this week was almost entirely driven by events outside the crypto market itself. The asset dropped to a weekly low of A$94,434 as Middle East tensions weighed on risk appetite, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 8, its lowest point of the week and a reading that signals extreme fear. It has since recovered but remains in extreme fear territory, sitting at 14 at the time of writing.

By mid-week, conditions shifted. Reports of a 15-point US peace proposal to Iran, including provisions around nuclear facility shutdowns and sanctions relief, triggered a broad risk-asset rally. Bitcoin surged above A$103,282, gaining ~15% from its conflict-era lows and outperforming gold, over the same period. Brent crude fell on the ceasefire reports, further supporting the rotation into risk assets.

Analysts at Bernstein maintained their US$150,000 (A$216,000) year-end target for Bitcoin, citing structural supports including sustained ETF inflows, corporate treasury accumulation, and the fact that roughly 60% of Bitcoin supply has been inactive for over a year. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, added 86,000 BTC to its holdings year-to-date, continuing its position as the most prominent corporate Bitcoin holder globally.

The key technical level heading into the final week of March is whether Bitcoin can sustain a break above A$108,000 on meaningful volume. Until that happens, the market remains in a recovery phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

Daily Mail: Major blow for crowds of Aussies who lined up to buy gold - as ABC money expert Alan Kohler delivers reality check

BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas said Bitcoin had outperformed almost every major asset class during the period, while the S&P 500 fell, gold slumped, and oil spiked.
'What's driving this is something we hadn't seen before at this scale: Bitcoin being used as a genuine flight-to-safety asset during a geopolitical crisis,' she said.

Cointelegraph: Crypto, stocks fall as oil whipsaws after Iran vows response to Trump threat

Rachael Lucas, an analyst at the crypto exchange BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph that crypto “is trading in lockstep with equities right now, not as a haven, and sentiment is sitting at historic lows, with the Fear and Greed Index deep in ‘extreme fear’ territory at 8.”

The week ahead: Economic events

Thursday, March 26th

• Germany GfK Consumer Climate

Friday, March 27th

• United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM

Monday, March 30th

• Germany Inflation Rate

Tuesday, March 31st

• Australia Interest Rate
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI
• France Inflation Rate
• Euro Area Inflation Rate
• Italy Inflation Rate
• United States Job Openings

Wednesday, April 1st

• Japan Business Confidence
• China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
• United States Retail Sales; ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Fed signals rates may stay higher for longer as inflation persists
• Europe: ECB maintains tightening bias amid energy-driven inflation risks
• China: Beijing reinforces stability narrative to support investor confidence
• Japan: Government signals readiness to act on energy and currency volatility
• Australia: Labour data shows mixed momentum, with unemployment edging

Policy signals this week leaned firmly toward caution, with inflation risks, particularly those tied to energy, keeping central banks on hold or biased toward further tightening.

In the United States, Fed Vice Chair Barr indicated rates are likely to remain steady “for some time,” as inflation continues to run above target. The emphasis is not just on persistence, but uncertainty, suggesting policymakers are unwilling to ease until they see clearer evidence of disinflation.

Across the Euro Zone, President Lagarde explicitly flagged the Iran conflict as a potential inflation driver, noting the ECB may need to respond even if price pressures are not long-lasting. This introduces a more reactive policy stance, where geopolitical shocks could directly influence rate decisions.

In China, officials used a Beijing forum to position the country as a source of economic stability amid global volatility. The messaging appears targeted at reinforcing external confidence, particularly as other major economies navigate inflation and policy uncertainty.

In Japan, the finance minister signalled readiness to act “on all fronts” following reports of activity in oil futures markets. The language points to heightened vigilance around energy-driven volatility and its implications for currency stability.

Meanwhile, in Australia, employment rose strongly in February, but the unemployment rate also ticked higher, an unusual divergence. The data suggests that while hiring remains active, labour supply is expanding faster, pointing to early signs of loosening in the labour market.

Taken together, the macro picture is being shaped less by growth momentum and more by inflation risks linked to external shocks, keeping policy settings restrictive and markets sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Final thoughts 

The week ahead brings several macro catalysts that will directly influence crypto sentiment. US PCE inflation data on Friday 27 March is the most significant, as it will shape expectations around Federal Reserve rate decisions. The Fed held rates at 3.5 to 3.75% at last week's meeting, projecting one cut for 2026. Any upside surprise in inflation data could delay that cut and weigh on risk assets.

Geopolitically, Iran ceasefire negotiations remain fluid. A breakthrough could push Bitcoin quickly toward A$103,000, while a deterioration would likely test the A$99,000 to A$101,000 support range. Watch BlackRock's IBIT daily flow data as an early indicator of institutional conviction. If inflows hold above US$100 million per session through the volatility, the ETF-supported floor appears genuine.

Ready to take advantage of the opportunities shaping the market? Log in to trade on Australia’s own digital asset exchange and stay positioned for what comes next.

Online safety: How to avoid unexpected money offers

Australians continue to receive messages claiming they are entitled to refunds, grants, prize winnings, or even inheritances. These offers may look official and often impersonate government agencies, banks, or well-known companies to appear trustworthy.

You may be asked to pay “processing fees” or “taxes” upfront, or to share banking or identity information to release the funds. These tactics are designed to create urgency or excitement, so you act before confirming whether the offer is genuine.

What to watch out for

• Messages stating you are owed money, compensation, or an inheritance.
• Requests to pay fees or taxes upfront to unlock funds.
• Emails, letters, or texts that look official but ask for identity or banking details.
• Social media messages about prizes that may not have come from the person they appear to be sent by.

How to stay safe

• Pause and verify before responding. Genuine refunds or prizes do not require upfront payment.
• Avoid paying any fees to access winnings or inheritance.
• Do not share your bank account, crypto wallet, or ID details with unverified contacts.
• Confirm claims through official websites or direct contact channels, not through links in a message.
• If you’ve shared information or made a payment, secure your accounts immediately and update your passwords.

Protect yourself and others. Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au.

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