Crypto sentiment surges on ceasefire

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State of Crypto

• Ceasefire lifts crypto sentiment as Bitcoin stabilises above US$107K
• Institutions double down on Bitcoin as treasury strategies expand
• BlackRock Bitcoin ETF surges into top 4 as Ethereum ETFs cross US$4B milestone
• Mastercard x Chainlink integration brings crypto access to 3 billion cardholders
• Japan proposes crypto reclassification to ease tax burden and enable Bitcoin ETFs

Ceasefire lifts crypto sentiment as Bitcoin stabilises above US$107K

Bitcoin rebounded above US$107,000 (A$165K) this week after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing geopolitical risk and triggering renewed interest in risk assets. The crypto market added over A$250 billion in value within 12 hours, led by strong inflows into Bitcoin and major altcoins. Ethereum rose 7% to reclaim US$2,400, while altcoins like Solana, XRP and Chainlink posted double-digit gains.

Market participants are now closely watching the US Federal Reserve, with interest rate cut expectations rising. Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest US$92,600 as a possible price target if further downside occurs with resistance at the US$108,000 level. With volatility driven by macro and geopolitical factors, investors should stay focused on key levels and broader sentiment shifts to navigate potential near-term price action.

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Institutions double down on Bitcoin as treasury strategies expand

Institutional interest in Bitcoin is gaining traction as firms adopt more aggressive treasury strategies to build crypto reserves. Trump Media has reaffirmed its US$2.3 billion Bitcoin holdings and approved a US$400 million stock buyback, reinforcing its pivot toward digital assets. This move complements plans to launch a Bitcoin-Ethereum ETF under the Truth Social brand.

Sequans Communications, a US-listed telecom company, has announced it will raise US$384 million to allocate to Bitcoin reserves, while Japan’s Metaplanet has approved a massive US$5 billion injection solely for BTC acquisition.

In a separate development, Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap is set to go public through a US$1 billion SPAC deal with Columbus Circle Capital. The firm raised US$550 million in preferred equity and secured US$225 million in convertible notes. ProCap intends to deploy its BTC balance sheet through yield-generating strategies, reflecting a maturing institutional appetite for Bitcoin as both a strategic asset and a capital-efficient reserve.

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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF surges into top 4 as Ethereum ETFs cross US$4B milestone

Investor interest in digital assets continues to accelerate, with BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT) climbing into the top four US ETFs by 2025 year-to-date inflows. IBIT has attracted US$13.7 billion, outperforming legacy products like SPDR’s SPLG and trailing only SGOV, VTI and VOO. The fund recorded nine consecutive days of inflows in June, including US$639.2 million in a single day. This momentum has positioned BlackRock as the dominant issuer in the crypto ETF space, now managing more than US$72 billion across its Bitcoin and Ethereum funds.

Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs in the US have surpassed US$4 billion in net inflows, with the most recent billion added in just 15 trading days, an inflection point for ETH investment vehicles. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust and Fidelity’s offering lead the pack, while Grayscale’s ETHE continues to see outflows due to its higher fee structure. With institutional participation lagging but rising, broader crypto adoption appears to be entering a new phase.

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Mastercard x Chainlink integration brings crypto access to 3 billion cardholders

Mastercard has partnered with Chainlink to enable real-time, on-chain crypto purchases for its 3 billion cardholders globally, a landmark development in the mainstream adoption of digital assets. This collaboration bridges traditional finance infrastructure with decentralised technology, removing friction from fiat-to-crypto transactions.

The initiative is powered by Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), which provides secure, reliable infrastructure to settle payments across blockchains. Mastercard’s trusted payment rails will be integrated with a network of crypto-native partners, including Zerohash, Shift4 Payments, and Swapper Finance. This allows users to purchase and settle crypto directly via Mastercard without leaving the blockchain environment.

The partnership signals a meaningful shift in how major financial institutions are approaching digital assets, no longer as experimental tools but as integrated components of global payment ecosystems. As user demand for seamless crypto access grows, initiatives like this are setting new standards for institutional-grade on-ramps.

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Japan proposes crypto reclassification to ease tax burden and enable Bitcoin ETFs

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has proposed a significant regulatory shift that could reshape the country’s digital asset landscape. Under the new proposal, cryptocurrencies would be reclassified as “financial instruments” under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), aligning them more closely with traditional securities.

This reclassification carries two key implications. First, it would pave the way for the approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Japan, potentially opening the market to greater institutional investment. Second, it would drastically reduce the tax burden on crypto gains, from a top marginal rate of 55% to a flat rate of 20%. This move could incentivise longer-term holding and participation in the domestic crypto market.

If passed, these reforms would signal Japan’s commitment to creating a more competitive, investor-friendly regulatory environment while maintaining oversight through established financial frameworks. Final decisions are expected in the coming months.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

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The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, June 26th

• US Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Durable Goods Orders & GDP Growth Rate
• Germany GfK Consumer Climate

Friday, June 27th

• France Inflation Rate
• United States Core PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income & Personal Spending

Monday, June 30th

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI
• Italy Inflation Rate
• Germany Inflation Rate

Tuesday, July 1st

• Japan Business Confidence
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• Japan Consumer Confidence
• Euro Area Inflation Rate

Wednesday, July 2nd

• United States ISM Manufacturing PMI & Job Openings

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• Australia’s inflation eases as employment shows mixed signals
• United States home sales edge higher as Fed holds rates steady
• United Kingdom keeps rates stable amid inflation pressures and slowing retail sales
• Japan’s inflation eases slightly but core prices hit two-year high
• Germany’s manufacturing contraction eases as business confidence improves
• Canada’s inflation remains steady below target as price growth eases

Australia’s inflation eases as employment shows mixed signals

Australia’s annual inflation slowed to 2.1% in May 2025, down from 2.4% over the previous three months, marking the lowest rate since October 2024 and below market expectations. Price growth moderated across food, housing, and recreation, while alcohol, tobacco, and clothing inflation picked up. Deflation in the transport sector also softened. The trimmed mean inflation eased to 2.4%, the lowest since late 2021, signalling cooling price pressures within the Reserve Bank’s target range.

Employment figures painted a mixed picture. Total employment fell by 2,500, driven by a sharp decline in part-time jobs, while full-time employment rose to a record 10.10 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, with labour force participation dipping slightly to 67%. Underemployment edged lower to 5.9%, and total hours worked increased.

Business activity indicators were broadly positive. The S&P Global Flash Australia PMI showed steady manufacturing growth at 51.0 and a stronger services sector at 51.3 in June, supporting a composite PMI of 51.2 and reflecting ongoing private sector expansion amid easing cost pressures.

United States home sales edge higher as Fed holds rates steady

US existing home sales rose 0.8% in May to an annualised rate of 4.03 million, defying expectations of a decline and recovering from April’s drop. Gains were led by the Northeast (+4.2%), Midwest (+2.1%), and South (+1.7%), which helped offset a 5.4% decline in the West. The median sales price climbed to US$422,800, reflecting continued resilience in the housing market despite elevated borrowing costs.

According to the National Association of Realtors, high mortgage rates remain a key headwind, suppressing broader market activity. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that lower rates would attract more buyers and sellers, boosting labour mobility and economic output.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting. Policymakers continue to signal two rate cuts later in 2025, while slightly lowering GDP forecasts. Inflation remains sticky, with the Fed now projecting a PCE rate of 3.0% this year.

United Kingdom keeps rates stable amid inflation pressures and slowing retail sales

The Bank of England voted 6-3 in June 2025 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.25%, opting for a cautious stance amid ongoing inflation and global uncertainty. While three members favoured a 0.25% cut, the central bank highlighted persistent inflationary risks, particularly from rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and potential US tariffs. UK GDP growth remains weak, and the labour market continues to loosen, supporting the need for a gradual withdrawal of monetary support.

Retail sales unexpectedly dropped 2.7% month-on-month in May, the sharpest decline since late 2023, driven by a 5% fall in food store sales and weaker non-food spending. Inflation, lower consumer confidence, and reduced foot traffic contributed to the downturn.

On the manufacturing front, the UK PMI showed signs of easing contraction, rising to 47.7 in June but export orders remained weak due to tariffs and competition. The services sector expanded modestly with a PMI of 51.3, supported by slight growth in new business but ongoing employment declines and subdued inflation pressures.

Japan’s inflation eases slightly but core prices hit two-year high

Japan’s annual inflation rate dipped to 3.5% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in the previous two months and marking the lowest reading since November. Price growth slowed for clothing, household goods, and healthcare, while education costs fell further. However, inflation remained steady for transport and miscellaneous items and accelerated for housing, recreation, and communications. Energy prices stayed elevated, with electricity rising 11.3% and gas up 5.4%.

Food prices increased 6.5%, maintaining the slowest pace in four months, despite rice prices more than doubling, highlighting limited government success in curbing staple food inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes fresh food, accelerated to 3.7% from 3.5% in April, reaching its highest level in over two years ahead of Japan’s summer election. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.3% in May, following a 0.1% increase in April, indicating continued inflationary pressures despite the easing headline rate.

Germany’s manufacturing contraction eases as business confidence improves

Germany’s manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilising in June 2025, with the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.0 from 48.3 in May, marking the mildest contraction since August 2022. Output growth strengthened, reaching its highest level since March 2022 and extending the current expansion streak to four months. Foreign demand and domestic orders both picked up, though subdued capacity pressures led to accelerated job cuts, the fastest pace since February. Meanwhile, output prices declined alongside lower input costs. Business confidence improved notably, hitting its highest level since February 2022, signalling optimism among manufacturers.

The Ifo Business Climate Index also rose to 88.4 in June, its highest in nearly a year. Gains were driven by improved sentiment in the services and retail sectors, with companies more positive about future prospects. Despite slightly weaker current conditions in manufacturing, firms remain hopeful about the months ahead, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the German economy.

Canada’s inflation steady below target as price growth eases

Canada’s annual inflation rate held steady at 1.7% in May 2025, matching market expectations and remaining below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for the second consecutive month. The stable reading reflects the continued impact of the federal consumer carbon tax removal, which helped ease price pressures.

Shelter costs showed slower growth, with overall shelter inflation easing to 3% from 3.4% in April. Rent inflation softened to 4.5%, while mortgage interest costs declined to 6.2%, reflecting the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate cuts. Food prices also moderated, rising 3.4% year-on-year compared to 3.8% the previous month.

Core inflation measures tracked by the central bank, including median and trimmed-mean rates, edged down slightly to 3%, pausing the gradual upward trend seen earlier in the year. Month-on-month, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.6% in May, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in April, signalling steady but contained inflationary pressures.

Scam alert

Threat and extortion scams: What to watch for and how to protect yourself

Scammers use fear to pressure people into handing over money. These tactics may include threats of arrest, deportation, harm, or public exposure, and often come from individuals posing as government officials or trusted organisations.

They may contact you by phone, email, or message, claiming you owe money and must pay immediately. Sometimes, they threaten to release private images or information unless you're willing to pay. These scams are designed to panic you into acting before verifying the facts.

Warning signs it could be a scam:

• Unsolicited contact claiming you owe money or face arrest.
• Demands for immediate payment through unusual methods like gift cards or crypto.
• Requests for personal or financial details.
• Threats involving law enforcement or immigration authorities.

How to protect yourself:

• Hang up or delete the message, don’t engage.
• Never give out personal or payment information.
• Verify the contact independently through official sources.
• Report the scam to authorities.

If you've been scammed, contact your bank immediately and change your passwords. Reporting helps protect others.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au

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