Institutions in, shorts out, Bitcoin rallies

Read our latest Weekly Crypto Wrap, 17th July:
‘Crypto Week’ stalls as rally stumbles

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State of Crypto

• Institutions in, shorts out, Bitcoin rallies
• BTC Markets sees strong trading volumes across top assets
• Bitcoin tests resistance as weekly price action tightens
• Ethereum spot ETFs - trend remains firmly positive
• Altcoins follow cautiously as Bitcoin dominance holds firm

Institutions in, shorts out, Bitcoin rallies

Bitcoin’s breakout to a new all-time high of US$112,000 signals a structural shift in market dynamics. Unlike previous rallies driven by retail speculation, this one is powered by sustained institutional demand, primarily through US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. These vehicles offer regulated, liquid access to Bitcoin, unlocking capital from asset managers and corporates alike.

Over US$223 million in short liquidations helped accelerate the move, as traders betting against the rally were forced to cover their positions. The broader macro backdrop has also played a role. Geopolitical uncertainty and Donald Trump’s renewed call for aggressive interest rate cuts have pushed investors towards assets with finite supply and global liquidity. Bitcoin continues to benefit from its scarcity and increasing appeal as a strategic allocation.

Bitcoin’s market capitalisation now exceeds US$2.2 trillion, placing it above Australia’s GDP. We are seeing clear signs of a more disciplined market cycle, defined by long-term capital flows, balance sheet adoption, and consistent ETF inflows. This reflects a maturing infrastructure and growing investor conviction.

On the BTC Markets exchange

Locally, trading activity on BTC Markets has mirrored global momentum. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin volumes increased by 38%. Ethereum rose by 41%. XRP led with a 52% jump in trade activity. These are not one-off spikes but part of a broader trend of consistent engagement.

Weekly price action

Across the week, Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a narrow but upward range, from US$108,361 to US$111,748. The market continued to test resistance near US$110,000, which also represents a key psychological barrier. A clean break could open the path toward the US$114,500 to US$125,000 range. On the downside, support remains steady around US$104,000 to US$106,000, a zone that has repeatedly attracted buying interest and helped sustain the bullish trend.

Institutional flows remain supportive. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fifth consecutive week of positive inflows, adding US$296.7 million over the past seven days. The cumulative inflow over that period now totals US$5.7 billion. While the pace has eased since June, interest remains strong and consistent, reinforcing the role of ETFs as a preferred vehicle for professional crypto exposure.

Adding a layer of intrigue, several long-dormant Bitcoin wallets were reactivated this week, some for the first time in over a decade. While these movements didn’t materially impact price, they serve as a reminder of latent supply that occasionally re-emerges in the market.

Bitcoin remains in a strong structural position. While momentum has cooled slightly following June’s rally, institutional participation and platform-level activity point to a solid foundation. The next move will likely hinge on whether buyers can build enough pressure to trigger a sustained breakout through resistance.

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Ethereum spot ETFs - trend remains firmly positive

ETH Spot ETFs have now recorded seven consecutive weeks of positive inflows, with US$108.74 million added in the most recent week. While inflows have moderated from the June peak of US$528 million, the trend remains firmly positive. Over the past seven weeks, more than US$1.75 billion has flowed into Ethereum ETFs, pushing total net assets to US$11.03 billion, up nearly 17% since late May. This consistent activity signals continued institutional interest in Ethereum exposure through regulated products.

Although the pace has eased slightly in July, the sustained inflows suggest long-term conviction is intact, even as broader market sentiment becomes more selective. For now, Ethereum continues to attract capital as a core layer-one asset in diversified digital portfolios.

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Altcoins follow cautiously as Bitcoin dominance holds firm

Bitcoin dominance continues to range between 64% - 66% with it falling to the lower end of the range currently. BTC’s position is still the primary driver of capital flows in the market. While not a dramatic fall, investors continue to favour Bitcoin exposure over higher-beta altcoins, a common trend when macro conditions remain uncertain or after a strong BTC-led rally.

Ethereum (ETH) moved 7.5% higher this week to US$2,768, testing resistance at US$2,800. If it breaks above that level, analysts expect a push toward US$3,000–$3,200. Ethereum ETFs have continued to attract inflows, and the broader Layer 2 ecosystem remains active, despite low gas fees.

XRP gained 5.5% to trade at US$2.41, driven by increased retail accumulation and optimism around pending ETF approvals. Resistance at US$2.50 remains the next test. Despite its strong community backing, XRP price action continues to lag major alt L1s in breakout momentum.

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Solana (SOL) rose 5% to US$157.61, consolidating just under US$160 within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Daily active addresses have surpassed 15 million, and developers remain highly engaged. A breakout could send SOL toward US$165–$170, but so far, BTC’s dominance has capped aggressive altcoin rotation.

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Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Fear & Greed Index

BTC Markets in the news

The Australian: Bitcoin best performing asset in FY25

Bitcoin outperformed major traditional assets in FY25, delivering a 73% return and stronger risk-adjusted results.

BTC Markets Head of Finance Charlie Sherry shared his insights with The Australian on Bitcoin’s rising appeal as volatility eases and portfolio diversification becomes more critical.

MarketWatch: Sleeping beauty bitcoin wallets wake up after 14 years to the tune of $2 billion

Caroline Bowler, chief executive officer at BTC Markets told MarketWatch that in the early days of bitcoin there was lots of conviction around HODLing bitcoin, so it’s not too out of character to find evidence of investors buying and holding for so long.

“What is remarkable is the amount of self-control that it would have taken through all these market cycles to sit on it for that long,” Bowler said in a point others were making as well.

AFR: Bitcoin tops commodities and stocks, but the boom years are ending

While the relative stability is welcome news for some investors, others are concerned that bitcoin is losing its biggest appeal: the wild swings in prices that traders have utilised to generate mega-profits.

“Continued institutional flows should continue to add stability,” said Charlie Sherry, head of finance at BTC Markets. “This may, however, limit [bitcoin’s] returns.”

The Block: Bitcoin regains $109,000 level on positive macro cues as market eyes next driver

Analysts say the current crypto market cycle is primarily driven by institutional capital buying bitcoin, with retail participation in the market remaining subdued, as signified in the cumulative trading volume of centralized exchanges hitting a nine-month low in June.

“The growing institutional presence in crypto is a double-edged sword,” BTC Markets Crypto Analyst Rachael Lucas said, citing legitimacy, liquidity and long-term capital as the positives. “But when retail steps back, you risk ending up with a market that’s too top-heavy and potentially more reactive to macro headlines or portfolio rebalancing flows.”

Announcements

New mobile app release is now live: Track your profit and loss

The first iteration of our profit and loss feature is now available in the latest version of the BTC Markets mobile app.

This new release gives you greater visibility into how your portfolio is performing. You can now view your unrealised profit and loss by asset and overall, track changes over time with dynamic charts, review your historical cost base and holdings value, and choose to hide or show zero-balance assets.

Update your app or download the latest version from the App Store (iOS) or Google Play Store (Android).

Note: iOS users will need to be on iOS 17 or higher. Learn more.

Stay organised this tax season with 25% off Koinly

BTC Markets is proud to continue its partnership with Koinly, a leading crypto tax platform that simplifies tax reporting for investors.

From now until July 31, and again from October 1 to 31, 2025, our clients can enjoy 25% off Koinly plans using the code BTCM2025.

The offer is valid for Australian customers and available to both new and returning users. Redeem at Koinly.io.

For more details on crypto tax reporting, read our tax blog or visit our support page. 

Explore the new BTC Markets – now in Beta

Our refreshed trading platform is now live in Beta, with card deposits now available.

Built from the ground up with your feedback, this new platform is designed to make crypto investing more intuitive, whether you’re just getting started or looking for a cleaner, faster way to manage your portfolio.

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• Card deposit functionality for quicker funding

The original BTC Markets exchange isn’t going anywhere; it remains fully available for advanced trading. You can switch between platforms at any time.

This is just the beginning. We’d love for you to explore the new experience and share your feedback.

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Explore the new BTC Markets experience.

The week ahead: economic events

Thursday, July 10th

• United States Fed Funds Interest Rate

Friday, July 11th

• United Kingdom Monthly GDP MoM
• Canada Unemployment Rate

Saturday, July 12th

• China Balance of Trade, Exports and Imports YoY

Tuesday, July 15th 

• Australia Consumer Confidence MoM
• China GDP Annual Growth Rate, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales YoY
• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
• Canada Inflation Rate
• United States Core Inflation Rate MoM and YoY, and Inflation Rate MoM and YoY

Wednesday, July 16th 

• United Kingdom Inflation Rate
• United States Producer Price Inflation MoM

Source: Trading Economics

Market reflections

• United States: Labour holds up, but policy clouds gather
• China: Inflation returns, but not with a bang
• Germany: Surplus widens as trade slows
• Canada: Trade gap narrows, growth remains patchy
• Australia: RBA holds rates as growth slows, inflation cools
  

United States: Labour holds up, but policy clouds gather

The US labour market continues to defy expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, beating forecasts, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. Government and healthcare jobs led gains, while federal employment remained weak.

The labour force participation rate slipped, reflecting underlying slack. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI rose to 50.8,indicating modest expansion in services. Input costs remain elevated, and tariffs continue to dominate business concerns. While fundamentals remain solid, business confidence could deteriorate as policy uncertainty and global tensions mount.

China: Inflation returns, but not with a bang

China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% year-on-year in June, marking the first annual inflation reading since January. E-commerce promotions, government subsidies, and improving US trade relations drove the shift. Core inflation climbed to a 14-month high of 0.7%, a sign of stabilising domestic demand.

However, the monthly CPI fell for the fourth time this year, suggesting patchy underlying strength. For crypto markets, China’s cautious recovery may dampen excess liquidity but helps reduce global deflationary pressure.

Germany: Surplus widens as trade slows

Germany’s trade surplus rose to EUR 18.4 billion in May, as falling imports more than offset softening exports. Shipments to the US and China fell sharply, weighed down by tariffs and weaker demand. Imports declined across both EU and non-EU partners, highlighting slower industrial activity. For the year to date, the country has posted a EUR 88.9 billion surplus. Germany’s role as Europe’s growth engine is weakening, with implications for broader Eurozone demand.

Canada: Trade gap narrows, growth remains patchy

Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to C$5.9 billion in May. Exports rose, particularly outside the US, while imports declined for a third straight month. Ivey PMI rebounded to 53.3 in June, pointing to mild economic expansion, though mixed internals cloud the outlook. Employment softened, supplier deliveries slowed, and input prices remain elevated. CARM-related delays and ongoing tariff policies continue to distort trade flows. For crypto markets, this suggests lingering cross-border frictions and constrained growth.

Australia: RBA holds rates as growth slows, inflation cools

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 3.85% this week, defying market expectations of a cut. Inflation has eased back into the RBA’s 2–3% target band, with trimmed mean CPI at 2.9%, but the Bank is awaiting confirmation of a sustained downtrend before moving. Rate cuts remain on the table, possibly as soon as August. GDP growth is subdued, expanding just 0.2% in Q1, and 1.3% annually — the weakest since 2020. Business activity improved in June, supported by easing inflation and steady demand. A more stable rate outlook may provide a constructive environment for crypto traders, particularly as monetary policy enters a holding pattern.

Closing thoughts: A time for patience and perspective

Global macro data points to a stabilising but uneven recovery. The US and China remain the primary demand drivers, with employment and inflation readings suggesting no imminent policy shifts. Australia’s dovish hold and falling inflation could support local investor sentiment, while Germany and Canada show signs of structural softness.

For crypto markets, the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. Volatility in trade and fiscal policy, along with diverging rate paths, could fuel ongoing portfolio diversification. Bitcoin’s positioning as a non-sovereign store of value continues to benefit from macro uncertainty, especially as global interest in ETFs and institutional adoption expands. 

Scam alert

Unexpected money: What to watch for and how to stay safe

Scammers are targeting Australians with messages claiming you're owed money - from tax rebates and grants to competition winnings and inheritances. These “offers” are fake and designed to steal your money or personal information.

You may be asked to pay upfront fees, taxes, or “administration costs” to receive the funds. Sometimes, scammers impersonate government agencies, courts, or legitimate companies to appear more convincing.

These scams prey on urgency and excitement and make it harder to think clearly.

Warning signs it could be a scam:

• Messages claiming you’re entitled to unexpected money, compensation, or an inheritance.
• Requests to pay fees or taxes upfront to release funds or winnings.
• Emails or letters that look official but ask for your identity or bank details.
• Social media messages from friends about prizes that they may not have sent.

How to protect yourself:

• Stop and check before acting. Free money offers are often scams.
• Never pay to collect a prize. Legitimate lotteries don’t ask for fees.
• Don’t share your bank details or ID documents with anyone you don’t trust.
• Verify claims through official websites, not through message links.
• If in doubt, ask your bank, a legal adviser, or someone you trust.

If you’ve been targeted, contact your bank immediately and report the scam.

Learn more at scamwatch.gov.au

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