Whales buy. Fear sells.

TLDR

• Bitcoin closed the week at US$67,643, down 1.73%, roughly 46% below its October 2025 all-time high of US$126,200
• Total crypto market cap fell 1.55% to US$2.29 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance steady at 59.02%
• The Fear and Greed Index closed at 9, deep in extreme fear, a level historically associated with cycle bottoms
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows totalling US$3.8B to US$4.5B, yet cumulative AUM remains at US$85.3B
• XRP posted its largest weekly realised loss spike since 2022 at US$1.93B, a pattern that preceded a 114% rally after a near-identical event in November 2022
• Bitcoin's short-term Sharpe ratio hit -38.38, a reading that has only appeared at the 2015, 2019, and 2022 cycle lows

Introduction

Bitcoin's pullback in today’s trading session is a macro story, not a Bitcoin-specific one. Investors are weighing a confluence of pressures: geopolitical uncertainty out of Mexico, US pending home sales falling to their lowest level ever recorded, and fresh uncertainty around US trade policy after the Supreme Court moved to limit President Trump's tariff powers over the weekend.

Trump responded by imposing the maximum temporary tariff of 15% on all imports rattling risk appetite globally. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.5% to 9,037 at midday AEDT, with nine of eleven sectors in the red. Gold pushed higher and the Australian dollar approached US70.9 cents as investors sought safety. Bitcoin is absorbing that uncertainty first, as it typically does in early risk-off sessions.

Weekly trading stats as of Monday, February 23rd at 11:00 AM AEDT, based on data from TradingView in USD.

Check prices

Bitcoin closes the week under pressure, but the data beneath is worth reading carefully

Bitcoin closed the week at US$67,643, down 1.73%, and roughly 46% below its October 2025 all-time high of US$126,200. The broader total crypto market cap fell 1.55% to US$2.29 trillion, with Bitcoin holding steady at 59.02%. The market feels heavy, with short-term holder losses driving panic selling and long-term support showing signs of strain.

But zoom out on the on-chain data and a more complex picture emerges. Whales added 200,000 BTC over the past month, even as the whale ratio hit 0.64, its highest level since 2015, indicating large players are also routing significant volume to exchanges. Meanwhile, miners, small whales, and retail are quietly accumulating. With 46% of supply currently underwater, this appears to be targeted cohort selling rather than broad market panic. That distinction matters.

Check BTC

Bitcoin ETF outflows are the headline, but the full picture tells a different story

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows totalling between US$3.8B and US$4.5B since mid-January. BlackRock's IBIT shed US$2.1B and Fidelity's FBTC lost US$954M over that period. The narrative around institutional exit is tempting but incomplete. 

Cumulative net inflows since ETF launch remain at US$54B, with total assets under management at US$85.3B, representing 6.3% of Bitcoin's entire market cap. The heaviest withdrawals occurred in late January when Bitcoin was still trading near all-time highs. 

This is institutions applying sell-strength logic in a macro environment clouded by trade tensions and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, not a structural retreat from Bitcoin as an asset class. Those are meaningfully different things.

Check ETH

Historic bottom indicators are flashing for the first time since 2022

Bitcoin's short-term Sharpe ratio closed the week at -38.38. That number has appeared exactly three times in Bitcoin's history: at the 2015, 2019, and 2022 cycle lows. Each time, it preceded a significant and sustained recovery. The metric tracks risk-adjusted returns relative to volatility, and at current levels it signals that investors are absorbing steep losses at an extreme rate. 

Meanwhile, former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal is forecasting Bitcoin reaching US$140,000 by mid-2026, pointing to converging macro forces including global liquidity expansion, a weakening US dollar, fading sell pressure from October's liquidation cascade, and shifting bank regulation dynamics. If he is right, the current Fear and Greed reading of 9 will be remembered as one of the more significant entry windows of this cycle.

Check XRP

XRP capitulation event mirrors conditions that preceded a 114% rally in 2022

XRP was the week's hardest hit major asset, losing 5.56% at US$1.3908. On-chain data shows US$1.93B in weekly realised losses, the largest spike since 2022, and a clear signal of extreme capitulation as holders sell below acquisition cost. The historical parallel is striking, a near-identical event in November 2022 preceded a 114% rally over the following eight months. That does not make a repeat inevitable, but context matters. 

Institutional developments on the XRP Ledger continue to accelerate, with the network now holding 63% of the tokenised US Treasury market at US$54.41M in issuance. SBI Holdings recently issued a yen-denominated bond rewarding investor with XRP, and XRP spot ETFs have recorded three consecutive weeks of net inflows. The capitulation and the institutional buildout are happening simultaneously.

Check SOL

Ethereum and Solana hold support as real-world asset tokenisation crosses US$10B

Ethereum closed the week at US$1,957, down 0.45%, holding above the US$1,850 to US$1,880 support zone that has been tested repeatedly in recent weeks. Staking demand has declined 50% from its peak and exchange balances are rising, creating near-term headwinds. Whilst BlackRock is moving closer to launching an Ethereum ETF that includes staking, a product the market has been waiting on for some time.

Solana closed at US$82.79, down 3.91%, continuing to consolidate after a period of significant outperformance. The broader macro backdrop for both assets improved marginally on the real-world asset front. 

Tokenised US Treasuries surpassed US$10B in 2026, leading a US$25B global RWA market. NYSE and LSEG are racing to launch 24/7 on-chain trading platforms, and major institutions including BNY Mellon, Citigroup, and JPMorgan are actively building on tokenised Treasury infrastructure. Analysts are projecting US$100B in tokenised assets by year-end.

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Final thoughts

The market is fearful. That is not a reason to panic, and it is not a buy signal on its own either. What the data does suggest is that the conditions for a meaningful recovery are building quietly beneath the surface.

Whale accumulation, historic Sharpe ratio readings, XRP capitulation patterns, and sustained institutional infrastructure buildout, all points in the same direction over the medium term. The near-term picture depends heavily on macro clarity, particularly progress on US tariff policy and any signal from the US Federal Reserve on rate trajectory. 

Watch Bitcoin's ability to hold the US$65,000 support level, XRP's reclaim of US$1.50, and ETH's attempt at US$2,050. Patience and perspective are doing the heavy lifting right now.

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